Community Owner’s Lament Grows….
Blog Posting # 623 @ 29 January 2021: EducateMHC
Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing!’
EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, & communication media for all land lease communities throughout North America!
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INTRODUCTION: Part I revisits the ‘hot topic’ of last week’s blog: rampant house price increases and delivery backlogs. Part II gauges the multifamily infill market for apartments and land lease communities during 2021. And Part III, if you’re a lender or loan broker, announces a unique opportunity to market your services!
Community Owner’s Lament Grows….
“Delaying delivery and jacking the sale price (of new HUD-Code manufactured homes) are counterproductive for all three parties.” HOW? “Bad will towards the manufacturer, consumer remorse on the part of the homebuyer/site lessee, and problems for the community owner/operator.” This is what we ‘splained’ in last week’s blog posting (#622). THIS WEEK? Here’s how at least one HUD-Code housing manufacturer justifies an increase in base price these days.
Lumber mill production continues to be below capacity, in part, as COVID-19 affects workforce
Lumber product demand continues to be high, particularly in the housing sector
New home sales, according to NAHB statistics, are 21 percent higher YTD; single family housing starts up 27 percent YTD.
Lumber prices have increased 34 percent during the three week period between mid-December and early January; doubling between November and now
Cost of oriented strand board (‘OSB’) now exceeds its’ earlier price peak this past fall
Cold-rolled steel has risen in price by 61 percent since June, with most of the increase occurring during the past 60 days
Shower doors, metal exterior accessories and other metal fixtures have increased in price between 23 and 34 percent.
Other components increasing in cost include copper wiring, resin-based materials, wood cabinets, etc…
Now, ‘here’s another rub’. At least one manufacturer, in an effort to provide some measure of wholesale price stability to land lease community owners/operators buying new HUD-Code homes to sell on-site, offers a form of price protection, i.e. ‘pay extra, above the base price, to ensure the new home won’t experience even further price increase’. Here’s how one veteran land lease community portfolio owner/operator responded to such a plan offered by one of his/her housing manufacturers:
“So, they’d charge $3,500 on a $50,000 new manufactured home, to guarantee the price won’t go up between the time we ‘agree’ on a sales price (i.e. base price) and the time the home is delivered in three to five months’ time? What a deal. NOT!!! What happens when raw material and building product costs go down?”
All the while, we continue to wonder why monthly new HUD-Code housing shipment volume lags behind 2019 levels, and well behind those of year 2018. Specifically, “Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’) reports 7,996 HUD-Code homes shipped (November 2020), compared to November 2019 @ 7,972homes, and 9,035 new homes shipped (the month before) during October 2020.” This quoted from the ‘MHShipment Volume & Stock Market Report’ published each month (i.e. January 2021) by EducateMHC in The Allen Confidential business newsletter. If you’re not already reading this key strategic information each month, visit www.educatemhc to subscribe!
Do you read MULTIFAMILY EXECUTIVE magazine? Well, if you did, you’d already know
“Multifamily real estate (investment) remains a solid investment for the long term.” P.11
“There is a significant amount of pent-up demand for quality multifamily product in quality locations.” P.25
“Until the pandemic is resolved, hotel is uninvestable, office is not for the faint of heart, and retail is dead.” P.23
To me, this says, mid to large-sized land lease communities nationwide, as a whole, will continue to be highly attractive to investors within and outside the manufactured housing industry. And among property portfolio ‘players’, consolidation will continue at its’ feverish pace, compressing capitalization rates along the way. The downside? As we already know, the ongoing, albeit increasing, threat of landlord-tenant legislation will have to be faced throughout year 2021.
Calling All Lenders!
Whether you originate real estate-secured mortgages on land lease communities, or personal property loans (chattel capital) for home-only loans, I need to hear from you ASAP!
During January, EducateMHC will be compiling the 23rd annual ‘National Registry of ALL Lenders Serving the Manufactured Housing Industry and Land Lease Community Real Estate Asset Class’. Next to the annual ALLEN REPORT, which was distributed this month as an addendum to The Allen Confidential business newsletter, this is the second most popular, of 12 Resource Documents researched and updated each year. Are you receiving these RDs? You should be! Visit www.educatemhc.com for more information.
In the meantime, however, if you are either (or both) a lender or broker, please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with this information:
Name of the lender and or broker and indicate whether ‘lender’ and or ‘broker’ focus for firm
Indicate whether this information is for land lease community mortgages or home loans
Total loan origination volume for all of year 2020
Names and phone numbers of three contact individuals at your firm
Here’s a major reason for you to want to be included in the 23rd annual ‘National Registry of ALL Lenders’. Being so-listed is the least expensive, most effective marketing media you will encounter this year! How so? This unique Resource Document is requested frequently by investors acquiring and refinancing land lease communities, as well as independent (street) MHRetailers and land lease community owners/operators seller-financing new HUD-Code homes being sold on-site at their properties!
Questions? Reach me via the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764.